Dominate the Product Adoption Curve

I wanted to have a go on this subject as well adding in a bit of theory for you to consider.

I wanted to pose 2 questions:

Where on the product adoption curve are you ? 

Do you still think retail is a good idea ?

This article explains more about how consumers adopt a product over time and while many assume that aiming for the majority is where they need to be to achieve scale - there are so many lessons to learn along the way to be patient !

It is also points to the evidence that what your product, brand or service set out to achieve, or is doing now is likely to change significantly by the time it is ready for the mass market.

Every company you know that’s dominating a mass market of consumers got there by focusing on something else first….

Yhup, there are very few products that launched in a Sainsbury’s or Tesco - smashed their ROS and then built a brand of value… 

In fact I cannot think of one. 

Check these examples out for size…

Not all in retail but you get the idea.

Uber has captured mass market appeal as an easy ride share app, but it started as an expensive black car service for tech bros looking to show off in New York and San Francisco (where cabs are both exponentially easier to hire and wildly more affordable).

AirBnb is the world’s largest hospitality provider, but it started as a roommate sharing website for a design conference in San Francisco.

Liquid Death has surpassed the billion-dollar valuation mark and punched into the mainstream water market, but it started as a brand aligned water product for music festivals.

RXBAR was sold for $600 million dollars after reaching mass market success, but it started as a Paleo friendly option only sold in CrossFit gyms.

Tesla has disrupted the mainstream automotive industry in the United States with its nearly century old moat of automakers, but it started as a niche electric powered roadster concept.

We could keep going, but you get the point. Below I’ll outline why this is and how this is relevant to you, even if you aren’t a company entering the marketplace.

What is the product adoption curve?

If 100% of your potential market could be mapped out on a graph, it would probably look a lot like the one above. 

A small minority (~2.5%), known as innovators, will be first in line to try your product and services because they are willing to be first. A larger minority group, the early adopters (~13.5%), is likely willing to “beat the crowds” for the adoption of your product or service but aren’t willing to be guinea pigs.

Every one wants the majority

Between the early and late majority, roughly 68% of your potential customer base is found here. Everyone wants these consumers, but how to reach them may be counterintuitive IMO thats where a retail listing sits and also has to be earned…

The Only Way [to the Centre] is Through

Going from zero to the centre of this bell curve is improbable. Compare and contrast these two opposing scenarios for a new sports drink company:

Scenario #1

You start small and capture the hearts and minds of a niche market. Ultramarathoners. Not runners. Ultramarathoners.

Scenario #2

You think electrolytes are the key to changing health in America. You begin sending emails to buyers hoping to get distribution into Walmart.

In Scenario #1, costs are low. 

The specificity of the brand messaging is high and remarkable. Niche communities communicate well with each other, so word of mouth comes easy. These innovators and early adopters are easier to reach for feedback for product iterations. These groups become fans and theirs a chance for a relationship beyond the transactional.

Ultramarathoners are the extreme tip of the running community, and their support would inform the rest of the running community nicely, which would bring context, brand equity, an origin story, and scale that transcends and includes running.

In Scenario #2, you’re an unremarkable start up with no sales and no customers. Every meeting you take, you’re perceived as 1 of 1000s of beverage startups.

Not only is it cheaper and less risky to address a small, highly specific market first, it’s also the best path to mass market adoption.

So now lets flip this back to retail and founders chasing the illusive listing.

Focusing on your niche target market, retailer, channel allows you to LEARN: adapt your proposition, change your messaging understand the levers that work to generate solid ROS and more importantly create awareness and demand - is paramount to getting and keeping your retail listing.

So be patient and remember consumers are always way behind where you want them to be.